By Alabi Williams
When on Monday, April 27, 2026, this Back-page suggested it was not too early for the African Democratic Congress (ADC), what was then the most promising opposition coalition, to tidy their acts, get purposeful and precise, the message was lost on those concerned. Some quarters construed it as meddlesome and elsewhere, prescriptive. Perhaps, it didn’t fit their bill. Yes, under normal circumstances, parties take time to run through the processes of selecting candidates as provided in the Electoral Act 2026.
But today’s circumstances are not normal. To survive layers of traps set by enemies within and without, opposition parties must act smart and be strategic. The ADC lumbered tardily. After that unsolicited suggestion in my article titled : “Not too early for ADC to anoint a candidate,” the party began to unravel.
By the end of that week, there were strong rumours that Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, presidential candidates of Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), in 2023, were moving out of ADC to an uncharted Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC). They have indeed moved out and ADC, along with their teeming supporters, causing the party lose a good chunk of stamina.
A reader (diaspora Nigerian), based in the UK, who engages this Back-page wondered why the Press in Nigeria cannot give a more categorical view of who in truth can defeat President Bola Tinubu and as well present the electoral mood of the country.
One’s response was that the Press in Nigeria do not have a balanced view of who can defeat Tinubu because at the end of the day, it is the responsibility of the people to elect their leader. It is difficult to present a general mood of the country because there are no polls to frequently probe the minds of the people with some degree of certainty. What the Press know is that, Nigerians are reacting differently, regarding whether President Tinubu should be replaced.
There are people in the South who prefer that the presidency remains in the South for the next five years. They believe and swear that it is the turn of the South after the North’s eight years under Muhammadu Buhari. There are those who are determined to see the presidency go to the South-East. They say it is not sacrosanct that Tinubu takes the remaining years belonging to the South.
There are those in the North who prefer the presidency to remain in the South for the next five years. Despite the hardship arising from this government’s woeful performance, some in the elite/political class prefer the afflictions to be managed and tolerated, so that when it’s the turn of the North in 2031, nobody would tell them stories.
Ideally, there should be measurements to capture gender, economic, demographic and other interests that influence the choice of who to elect as president. There is no polling culture to capture these. Instead, the Press come up with their own metric and sometimes, biases to explain what they think is the mood of the country. Some media campaigners have sworn that certain candidates would never make it to the Presidency. Their calculations stem from the fear that the chances of their preferred candidates are blocked by certain contenders. They’re too formidable.
What we have going into 2027 is a convoluted clash of interests, that even the best of polls might not properly disaggregate. What might be easy to deduce is citizens’ reaction to policies and how they are impacted. On that count, everybody feels Tinubu’s afflictions (T-Pain), one way or the other. But when it comes to connecting performance to elections, Nigerians begin to speak divergent tongues.
Those who are benefitting think Tinubu is the best thing to happen after Adams Smith; he is an economic wizard. Others begin to rationalise and remind you that it was the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), that handed over a blistered economy to APC. Tinubu is trying, they argue vehemently. Let’s give time for the reforms to yield prosperity.
Navigating these interests to forecast the electoral mood of the country and determine who can defeat Tinubu is not a straightforward exercise. It is the responsibility of the opposition to carry out their forecast. That opposition must be clear about itself and be selfless enough to read the mood of the country.
When the ADC showed signs of being a serious coalition, many Nigerians, across zones and interests decided to give it the benefit of the doubt. When there were clear plots by state institutions to frustrate ADC, men and women of goodwill rose to their defence. They wanted to register a fresh political party to push their ideas and also avoid endless judicial intervention over ownership. But the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), under Mahmood Yakubu, trashed that effort.
Now that Obi and Kwankwaso are gone to NDC, the ADC is deflated. Didn’t David Mark and other leaders of the party see it coming? The vibes became tumultuous when Kwankwaso aligned with the ADC. Before then, he had been reported in talks with the All Progressives Congress (APC). It didn’t work out. The Governor of Kano State, Abba Kabir Yusuf, Kwankwaso’s protégé had to leave him stranded.
But in ADC, it appeared an Obi/Kwankwaso alliance could be the rallying point the party needed to break the demographic and zoning barriers. The foot soldiers who made Obi to come third in 2023 presidential elections, without any formal political structure, had make it clear they were not going to waste their votes again. Kwankwaso comes with a clear advantage from the North. It was thought that the ADC leadership would read the signs and make concessions, if indeed they were out on a rescue mission. Now, the major opposition to ADC is the NDC, with their loyalists and spokespersons trading blames and insults in the marketplace. It meant they were never together, just a bunch a power mongers. For the Tinubu camp, there is no better way to sink the fiercest opposition on the road to 2027.
Around the time opposition talks were first proposed to counter Tinubu’s unpopular government, the African Centre for Leadership, Strategy and Development (ACLSD), in partnership with the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD), the Westminster Foundation for Democracy (WFD), the Peering Advocacy and Advancement Centre in Africa (PAACA), and the National Peace Committee (NPC) put together a conference on January 27, 2025 in Abuja. It was a fully packed intervention to begin conversation on sustaining democracy amid a wave of military coups in the continent.
On ground at that conference was a coalition of opposition-minded politicians from the ruling APC and other parties, including former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi, Aminu Tambuwal, Nasir el-Rufai, Kayode Fayemi, Lyel Imoke, Emeka Ihedioha.
There were other politicians of note. Dr. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, who was then Special Adviser on Political Issues in the Presidency, represented the Vice President, Kashim Shettima.
The kernel of the address delivered by the Guest Speaker, former Vice President of Ghana, Mahamudu Bawumia, was his admonition for leaders of opposition to bury their individual ambitions for the survival of the country. He cautioned that democracy in Africa was fragile, noting that between 2020 and 2023, Africa had experienced eight military coups that truncated democracy in those countries. He stressed the importance of trusted institutions, such as the electoral commissions, the judiciary and law enforcement agencies, whose independence and non-partisan stature is necessary for democracy to grow.
Bawumia said: “When institutions are undermined for partisan or sectional interests, they lose their ability to function effectively, paving the way for autocracy and misgovernance.”
The former Ghana’s vice president linked the survival of democracy to socio-economic justice and development, insisting that there won’t be rest for the society as long as poverty and injustice are allowed, emphasising the role of active citizenship in strengthening democracy.
“Democracy thrives when citizens understand their role in holding leaders accountable and participating in governance processes,” he said.
After listening to the lecture and the conversations, one was influenced to do an intervention on this Back-page titled: “For this democracy to thrive,’’ on February 10, 2025. The idea was to press home the significance of the message and to remind the operators that democracy had lost its meaning as far as the people are concerned. It was also to say to frontline opposition leaders that they had their assignment well cut out. They must not miss the occasion.
Now they’re close to missing the occasion. And nothing has changed in their calculations and preparations to take power from the ruling party. “They learned nothing and they have forgotten nothing,” like the French Bourbon monarchy that refused to adapt to the tide of a brewing 19th century revolution. They were stuck in their old ways, causing Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand, to brand them unrepentant. Their refusal to adapt led inevitably to the French Revolution, which forcefully paved the way for the democratic republic.
In suggesting that it was not too early for the ADC to anoint a presidential candidate two weeks ago, one was simply gauging the political environment, and suggesting that the party took a look at the dynamics at play across the country. Young people are getting restless and disconnected with the old-style politics of big men.
They want mobile and articulate candidates who feel their frustrations and abandonment. They made certain their preference for a relatively younger team that might help the party cross the borders of zones and ethnic limitations. But the politicians were stuck in their old ways.
Meanwhile, the APC seems to understand the clamour for a general shift. They do not have an immediate answer because Tinubu is struggling with age, but they have deployed resources to appeal to segments. Their City Boys are spending undisclosed billions to woo young people. The wife of Mr. President, Senator Oluremi Tinubu, is distributing farm inputs across the North, from accounts that were not appropriated.
Other APC campaign groups are openly sharing cash and demanding beneficiaries to present their identities.
The opposition is bickering and self-flagellating. Shame!
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