By Alabi Williams
Though the Gulf countries, theatre of ongoing war between the United States and Israel against Iran, are more than 5,000 kilometers away from these shores, other neutral countries are forced to live with consequences of the war, irrespective of distance.
Hardly had the war taken off when the prices of crude oil began to go haywire. From pre-war estimates of $70 per barrel, Brent Crude for instance, traded at $80.89 within days. For an oil dependent country like Nigeria, that is a piece of good news. At the end of the day, depending on how long the war lasts, there is a certain windfall to harvest from the disruptions ongoing in the Middle East.
Local markets responded quickly with increases in petrol retail prices. As early as Day Three of the war, the price of PMS had gone up sharply in Nigeria. Dangote Refinery confirmed it added N100 to a litre of petrol, jerking it from N774 to N874. But MRS, Dangote Refinery retail outlets actually sold the product above N900 per litre, depending on location.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), also adjusted the pump price to N960. If the war is not stopped, projections are that PMS could sell way above N1,000, amid fears of imminent scarcity.
The curious thing is, petrol price increases hardly discriminate between old and new stock. Everybody is forced to pay a price to appease a war that is fought far away. The windfall government is expected to earn, if it ever comes, has already been liquidated by costly PMS. Citizens are now paying higher transportation and living costs. Many countries didn’t prepare for this. Even the U.S., Israel and Iran might have thought otherwise.
Global oil and gas reeling
The war has made transportation of oil vessels along the Strait of Hormuz too risky for insurers. Iran has warned vessels not to ply the Strait, as they run the risk of being hit. The route is said to commute around 20 per cent of global oil and energy trade (17-21 million barrels of crude oil shipments).
Alternative routes and network of pipelines provide limited capacity, and added costs. As at last week, shipping costs in the Middle East have reached all-time high rates, well above $400,000 for large vessels to China. Others have introduced War Risk Surcharges ranging from $1,500 to $4,000 per container. Shipping insurance premiums have jumped up to five times. Vessels are now traveling longer routes through the Cape of Good Hope, in South Africa, leading to delays and potential higher costs.
Last week, the Qatari Liquified Natural Gas (LNG), was shut down for the first time in 30 years. It was a force majeure. That LNG supplies 20 per cent of global liquified natural gas, which it supplies to Europe and Asian markets, with customers in China, Japan, India among others.
If the war is not halted, it is feared that the global gas market will experience serious shocks. Prices have gone up in many countries. In Nigeria, cooking gas prices are responding to the war, with some outlets having no stock, or perhaps, waiting to take advantage.
Global aviation has taken a beating. Last week, at least 20,000 flights in and out of the Middle East were canceled and more than a million travellers stranded, Nigerians included. The airspace is on lockdown. This has implications for global tourism that is estimated to contribute $11.7 trillion to the global economy. Cruise ships have been grounded and hotels unable to provide safety assurances.
For instance, debris from missiles were deposited near Fairmount The Palm Hotel in Dubai. Guests were forced to take shelter in underground basements. There was fire at the Burj Al Arab Hotel, after it was hit by debris from a drone. The industry is predicted to experience significant drop in visitor numbers in 2026 and up to $34-$56 billion drop in revenues.
The human toll is equally heavy, and growing. Preliminary count by Iran earlier put its human casualties at 1,045. President Trump said the war could go on for weeks, signaling the likelihood of increased deaths. Unfortunately, children and women are reported killed. More than 100 have been reported killed in Lebanon, where Iran’s proxy militia, Hezbollah joined the fray.
Thirteen people were killed in Israel and six American soldiers were killed in the U.S. Command Center in Kuwait. The bodies of 87 sailors were retrieved from an Iranian warship sunk by the United States in the Indian Ocean, last Wednesday. Thirteen were reported killed in Iraq, One in Oman, one in Bahrain, four in Syria and three in the UAE.
Countries geared up last week to evacuate their nationals caught in between hot volleys.
France began moving its estimated 400,000 nationals on Wednesday, using a military aircraft to lift 180 persons from the UAE and a charter aircraft carrying 205 residents from Israel. The U.S. announced 18,000 Americans had gone home. Mexico said around 280 had been evacuated. The UK said over 130,000 nationals had registered, and many were airlifted home last week. Ireland, Norway and South Africa are making efforts to ensure safe return of their people.
A significant population of Nigerians live and work in the Middle East. As of 2005, the largest concentration of Nigerians lived in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman. As of last week, the Nigerians in Diaspora Commission (NiDCOM), advised them to remain vigilant and stay indoors. The Commission in a statement said authorities were monitoring the situation and working with concerned agencies on appropriate steps to take on keeping Nigerians in the Middle East safe. So far, no reports of mishap.
Events leading to the war
In history, causes of wars are both remote and immediate. One builds into the other, inevitably. Therefore, the genesis of the U.S., Israel and Iran war could be foregrounded in decades of mutual hostilities, plots and deadly espionage among the three countries.
The immediate trigger, ostensibly,is the loss of faith in the talks to stop Iran from enriching uranium to near-weapons-grade levels.
After the 12-day war of June 2025, declared by Israel to degrade Iran’s nuclear capability, which the U.S. joined, it appeared the job was not conclusively done. Iran was reported to retain the capability to return to uranium enrichment soon. On the part of Israel and the U.S., that made another round of bombardment inevitable.
Fresh talks were initiated by Oman in Geneva, to push the diplomatic button once more, which were attended by Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi and U.S. envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. But last talks on February 26, were not hopeful. Another round was scheduled for Monday, March 2, 2026, which couldn’t happen because the U.S. and Israel launched their war on February 28.
Failure of diplomacy
Relations between Iran and the U.S. had been frosty, since the Iranians got rid of their American supported leaders in 1979. Iranian students took over what used to be the U.S. Embassy in Tehran. Since then, there have been no direct diplomatic relations between the two countries, except when third-party countries facilitate engagements.
For instance, the Swiss Embassy in Tehran attends to U.S. related matters while the Pakistani Embassy in Washington does the same for Iran. Instead of fostering mutual growth to benefit humanity, the two countries plotted each other’s downfall, with the U.S. using economic sanctions to strangulate Iran. But the resilient Iran managed to survive the sanctions and in turn use its proxies to unleash terror on U.S. and allied interests across the globe.
For Israel, the invasion of October 7, 2023, by Iran sponsored Hamas and Hezbollah, culminated the vow by Iran to exterminate the Jewish State. Iran made no pretenses about its hatred for Israel and the urgency to annihilate the Zionist State, in words and action.
Iran sought to protect Palestinians in decades-old war with Israel over territories. A powerful Iran, with nuclear arms posed existential threat to Israel and every effort must be consolidated to frustrate that endeavour.
Iran had steadily become a regional power in the Gulf, with its military ranked 16th out of 145 countries in the Global Firepower review.
Among its neighbours, Iran has the most active military, with extensive missile and drone capabilities. It is also the most daring and war-prone. Side by side Israel, they operate the two most dominant military in the region.
The proxies Iran operates in the region and around the globe don’t make the country a favourite among its regional partners and foes. It is among reasons they have sought military protection from the U.S, which accounts for the siting of military bases in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, Jordan and UAE. The bases provide support for maritime, air and rapid response operations. The U.S. has around 40-50,000 troops in the Middle East.
While Iran’s fellow countries in the gulf have refrained from retaliating the barrage of missiles from Iran, it appears the provocation is to summon diplomatic pressures for the war to be eased. On the other hand, Iran’s desperation gives justification for the U.S. to be unrelenting in the pummeling of its assets and capacity to launch missiles against neighbours. That might prolong the offensive.
It’s a delicate situation for everybody. The cost of the war to Israel’s economy is massive. The country spends around $3 billion a week, according to Israeli Finance Ministry. The war is said to cost the U.S. approximately $891.4 million per day, according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. The total is expected to be between $40 billion to $95 billion, depending on duration.
Iran, apart from suffering degraded military and civilian infrastructure, its costs range from $11.7 trillion in global economic consequences. Inflation in the country had gone over 40 per cent in 2025.
The damages could be incalculable at the end of the day. Putting together the costs of the war on the global economy and on individual countries, perhaps the belligerents might have thought otherwise, if they were to first count the cost.
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