By Marcel Okeke
Nigerians in the market
Claims about the stabilisation of the Nigerian economy have been made ad nauseam (to an excessive degree) since mid-2025; meaning that hitherto, it had remained fragile and unstable. However, the so-called macroeconomic stability leaves Nigeria’s economic advancement at a crossroads: in which direction is it headed? Is there really any steady journey in any specific direction in the country’s economic development process?
Answers to these questions are either in the negative or not obvious. This is because in the face of the economic stability being flaunted, the fragility-inducing factors, and headwinds (both endogenous and exogenous) are virtually ubiquitous. Have the drivers of high inflationary trend been effectively tamed? Or, are hyperinflationary figures being manipulated through constant changes in the esoteric methodology for the calculation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)—that measures inflation rate?
Since December 2024, when the CPI hit almost 35 per cent, the index was not only promptly rebased to crash the figure to below 25 per cent by the next month (January 2025), but was steadily dropped to stand at 17.33 per cent in November 2025. By the next month, December 2025, the methodology for the CPI was yet again altered to arrive at what is widely seen as a predetermined figure (15.15 per cent).
Even with these figures that carry credibility question marks, the key drivers of rising inflationary trend are yet very potent. Food insecurity or scarcity is biting harder; with average households in most parts of the country spending practically all their incomes on food and feeding. Nigeria’s food import bill in 2025 showed a massive surge, with the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reporting over N1.4 trillion spent on food-related imports during the third quarter 2025 only.
A few days ago during the first Senate sitting after the 2025 Christmas and New Year recess, President of the Senate, Godswill Akpabio, expressed “deep concern over the escalating cost of food and the increasing risk of hunger nationwide.” He warned that “the situation poses a serious threat to national stability and citizens’ welfare,” and called for “swift and coordinated national action to prevent a looming food crisis.”
In the first quarter 2025, food and beverage imports in Nigeria rose by over 45 per cent compared to 2024, according to the NBS data. Obviously this trend is due to weak local food production, worsening insecurity, inconsistent agricultural policy, among others. And truly, none of these factors has turned around for the better. If anything, the insecurity in the land has assumed a bizarre dimension—with the willful involvement of the United States of America in the fight against terrorists in certain parts of the country.
Farmers in not a few parts of the country are still being dislodged, and chased away by terrorists and or armed herdsmen—leading to the growing number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) camps—and the thickening population of ‘refugees’ across the country. Several locations hitherto known as the “food baskets” of the country are today almost completely deserted—abandoned to the terrorists and their ilk.
Relevant here is also the question: has fuel subsidy removal succeeded in stabilising the price of petrol (Premium Motor Spirit, PMS) or any other fuels for that matter? Nearly 32 months after fuel subsidy was removed, the havoc wreaked by the policy on inflation, and standard of living of Nigerians is yet to abate. Even today, the price of PMS is still moving like a yo-yo. At this time in January 2026, when Nigerians thought the price had settled at somewhere below N700 per liter at the pump, the price of the commodity has gone up to around N1000 per liter.
The politicking and intrigues going on among key elements like the Nigeria National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, the Dangote Refinery, and other stakeholders in the refined products market have kept the PMS’ price fluctuating rapidly. And, every movement in the price of PMS affects the prices of virtually everything else: transportation, house rents, foodstuffs, production or manufacturing costs, etc. All these keep pushing inflation sky-high, further weakening the purchasing power or disposable income of the citizenry.
This scenario that has been playing out since May 29, 2023 has impoverished the majority of Nigerians, as shown in figures published both by the World Bank and the IMF, among others. The World Bank and the IMF project that poverty rate in Nigeria would be increasing from 39 per cent to 61 per cent, and potentially affecting 139 million people by late 2025.
In point of fact, although the World Bank acknowledges the necessity of reforms in Nigeria, it equally points out that policies like the removal of petrol subsidy and fully floating of the naira have really worsened the living conditions of vast number of the citizenry.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has similarly harped on the deleterious, but perhaps unintended impacts of the reforms on the life and livelihoods of Nigerians. These realities are yet to be addressed in any appreciable form by the government of the day.
The tight monetary stance of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) which has left the Federal Government a key borrower from both the money and capital markets, has almost completely crowded out other fund users. Whether in the bonds, treasury bills or other segments, the Federal Government is predominantly raising money. So, most private-sector deficit spending units (DSUs) are faced with low accessibility and affordability of credit in the prevailing environment.
—the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR)—hiked to 27 per cent, has been applied in pricing financial assets to attract “hot money”—Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPIs). However, this seemingly beneficial scenario has been largely to the detriment of the larger economy: unrelenting high interest rate regime.
On the other hand, is the much-needed Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), or “patient money”, likely to be flowing into Nigeria, given its very uncompetitive investment climate of today? Who really will be investing in a country where the U.S. army could be dropping bombs, or doing airstrikes in various locations at will? Where ranks the country’s weak infrastructure, exemplified by the incessant collapse of the national grid in the power sector?
This, perhaps, accounts for why President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been practically globe-trotting, ‘sealing’ huge investment deals and ‘agreements’ that result in very little or no actual FDI in Nigeria. Whether in India, Brazil, Saint Lucia, France, UAE, Turkey or London, such deals running into billions of dollars were reportedly ‘sealed’ with prospective investors that are unlikely to look in the direction of Nigeria.
In reality, what shape of stability has the Nigerian economy attained in the past one year or so? The naira exchange rate vis-à-vis the dollar by May 2023 was around N500/$; it deteriorated to almost N1900/$, before staying in the range of N1500-N1454.
Similarly, the country’s inflation rate was about 22 per cent in May 2023; it shot up to almost 35 per cent in December 2024, before it was ‘forced’ down through incessant changes in CPI computation methodology, to 15.15 per cent.
Also, by May 29, 2023, the price of PMS per liter was below N200; but from thence, it climbed to over N1000, before it came down to around N700. Unfortunately, as of today, PMS’ price has gone up to between N900-N1000 per liter again. So, where is this much-talked-about economic stability in Nigeria?
On another plank, how is governance at the center muddling through with three annual budgets? As of today, there are the 2024 and 2025 budgets still running, as well as the 2026 Appropriation Act that is yet in the making.
How soon the Bill will be through the legislative processes remains unknown. In this thicket of budgets, will due process, transparency and clarity that should guide public finance management still play out optimally? Or, will it be a case of motions without movement? Corruption, embezzlement and opacity all the way?
Allied to this bizarre situation is the Federal Government’s plodding ahead with the implementation of the widely-excoriated and largely-faulted New Tax Laws. It has been proven that the laws made by the Legislature have (broadly) been altered; with several versions now in circulation. The report of the Minority Caucus Committee of the House of Representatives contains numerous irrefutable proofs of criminal alterations in the (otherwise approved) laws. How the Federal Government intends to carry this Albatross, and forge ahead remains to be seen.
All these, on the aggregate, constitute the countervailing forces that will rather function as drags on the nation’s economic development trajectory. Instead of effectively stimulating or jumpstarting Nigeria’s economic growth and development, these (above) factors constitute boisterous whirlwinds that make the economy remainlargely rudderless.
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Okeke, a practicing economist, business strategist, sustainability expert and ex-chief economist of Zenith Bank Plc, can be reached via: obioraokeke2000@yahoo.com(08033075697) SMS only
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