By Sola Onamodu
When Lagos State authorities paused demolition activities in Makoko, the decision was widely interpreted as a response to public pressure.
But beneath the optics, officials say the move was driven by a colder calculation: the cost of inaction.
Makoko, one of Lagos’ most densely populated waterfront communities, sits at the intersection of several high-impact risk factors – wooden housing, informal electricity connections, open-flame cooking and limited emergency access.
Urban safety assessments reviewed by government agencies warned that a single fire outbreak could spread rapidly through tightly packed structures, overwhelming response capacity within minutes.
For policymakers, the numbers were stark. A major waterfront fire would not only threaten hundreds of lives, but also impose significant fiscal costs on the state – emergency response, temporary shelter, compensation, reconstruction and long-term economic disruption to fishing and water transport activities that support livelihoods across the lagoon corridor.
“The cheapest disaster is the one that never happens,” a senior official familiar with the assessments said, adding “Once a fire breaks out in a place like Makoko, the bill multiplies quickly.”
Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu has repeatedly framed such interventions within a broader safety-first philosophy, stressing that governance decisions must prioritise human life above all else.
“The safety of lives and property of Lagosians remains our top priority,” the governor has said, underscoring the state’s approach to risk management in vulnerable communities.
According to estimates from emergency and planning officials, preventing a high-density fire outbreak costs a fraction of post-disaster intervention.
Fire response alone can run into hundreds of millions of naira, while rebuilding informal settlements often stretches over years, with recurrent compensation claims and humanitarian spending.
Fishing boats sail on the water in front of the Makoko settlement. Around 200,000 people live in the stilt settlement in the Lagos lagoon.
Fishing boats sail on the water in front of the Makoko settlement. (Photo by Picture Alliance)
The decision to pause demolition allowed the government to recalibrate its approach – shifting from enforcement speed to risk prioritisation.
Authorities focused on identifying the most dangerous zones, particularly structures built directly beneath high-tension power lines and areas where fire spread would be fastest.
From a fiscal standpoint, the logic mirrors principles familiar to insurers and investors: de-risk first, then rebuild confidence.
Urban economists note that informal settlements left in high-risk configurations create what they describe as “hidden liabilities” on government balance sheets.
Fires, floods and collapses in such areas repeatedly divert public funds from productive infrastructure into emergency spending.
By temporarily halting demolition, Lagos officials say they aimed to avoid triggering secondary risks – panic, displacement shocks and congestion – while reassessing how to reduce exposure in the most vulnerable corridors.
The approach reflects a broader shift in urban management thinking, where prevention is treated as capital preservation, not social spending.
Reducing the likelihood of a mass-casualty fire protects lives, but it also protects economic activity along the lagoon – fishing routes, informal trade networks and water transport links that feed into the wider Lagos economy.
In this context, the Makoko pause becomes less a policy reversal and more a cost-containment strategy.
Analysts say the true value of such decisions is rarely visible. “You don’t see the invoices for disasters that didn’t happen,” one urban risk consultant noted. “But governments that ignore these risks usually pay for it later – and pay much more.”
For Lagos, the absence of flames, sirens and emergency shelters in Makoko may already represent a measurable return on investment – one calculated not in structures removed, but in losses avoided.
Sola Onamodu writes from Lagos. He can be reached at this email: solasoulaiman@yahoo.com
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