By Abdu Rafiu
The world can heave a sigh of relief even if it is only for two weeks. The two belligerent nations have sheathed their swords for now. The chief war-monger, Mr. Donald Trump, backed by his allied trigger-happy Israeli Benjamin Netanyahu was warming up for an unconscionable total scrapping of Iran from the surface of the earth. He was boasting, he was speaking with glee, assured of victory based on the range of arsenals in his armoury which are capable of sinking any nation that may wish to stand in America’s way. Trotting about in Hitleristic self-assured confidence, he was looking forNeville Chamberlain to stretch out hands of appeasement otherwise Poland that the Middle East has become would be put on fire, the kind never seen before, and then annexed.
The demi-god in Washington was expecting concessions in Iranian compliance within 48 hours to avoid the whole of the Middle East, Iran and the Arab world, being swept into an Armageddon. Iran itself has threatened to do likewise, to blow up oil wells and render desolate any of the countries in the zone that may concede an inch of continuing American foothold in the regions, thus putting all of the Gulf States at a crossroads.
Iran has vowed that it would not capitulate in the face of the bombardment of the American terror machine. They say the attack of 28 February came unexpectedly, even though the atmosphere had been laden with signs. In the combined America-Israeli attack, not only did it result in horrendous devastation, in mindless destruction of lives and properties and what have you, but ended in the killing of the Iranian Supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and some key members of government. The airstrikes hit schoolchildren killing dozens of them which unconfirmed report put at 150; nearly 2,000 targets were hit and in less than five days, 17 Iranian war ships were destroyed.
Mr. Trump conceded to a truce because, according to him, America was winning the war. Iran would not, however, agree with the claim. Oil tanker transits plying the Strait of Hormuz through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil passes shrank by 90 per cent in the height of the U.S./Israeli airstrikes. Iran had shut down the crucial port, part of the economic engine waves of many countries. The closing down in consequence threw the world economy into turmoil. Allied nations rebuffed Mr. Trump because they were being made to bear the brunt of hostilities about which they were not consulted. In his bellicosity, he dismissed them as cowards. Earlier in the week, Iran began to issue passage permits to ships, demonstrating its firm control of the Strait of Hormuz.
President Trump said he put the 48-hour ultimatum he gave to Iran on hold because of diplomatic pressure as well as seeing the bright prospect of a“Golden Age of the Middle East” following the intervention of Pakistani leaders.
Mr. Trump said America and Iran are working on 10-point structured proposals which provide “a workable basis on which to negotiate.” He pointed out that the U.S. had presented its own broader proposal. He said the two-week truce is to allow the two sides to finalise wide-ranging agreements: “Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed…but a two-week period will allow the Agreement to be finalised and consummated.” He said the intervention of Pakistan was timely. He said the diplomatic intervention of Pakistan’s Shehbaz Sharif and Asim Munir made him to shift ground. “Based on conversations…wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran…I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks”, he said.
For Iran, the embattled country must be committed to the “complete, immediate and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz.” It is a condition to which Iran consented, but of course also “If attacks against Iran are halted, our powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations.” The position of Iran was contained in a statement by Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi after consultations with regional partners and upon being persuaded by Washington’s readiness to negotiate. He gave the assurance that Iran would guarantee safe transits through the Strait of Hormuz during the period of the truce. Iran’s Armed Forces would see to it with necessary consideration of technical limitations in mind. In his words, “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.” Mr. Araghchi expressed gratitude and appreciation to the Pakistani leaders for what he described as their “tireless efforts to end the war in the region.”
Elated Mr. Trump described the moment as a turning point, which he hopes will bring the age-long conflict close to resolution. He believes the agreement is an instrument to reshape the geopolitical and economic landscape of the Middle-East. Both Washington and Tehran are hopeful that the continuing negotiations would transform the ceasefire into enduring stability and will engender lasting peace in the ever combustible, tension-soaked region. Mr. Trump sees the development as an honour for him.
As I was saying the other day it is such a worrisome irony that the region in which great figures lived and worked to bring the word of Truth to mankind has been turned into one of unceasing rage and upheaval.
That it was Pakistan emissaries that flew down to broker peace shows how far Mr. Trump has alienated himself from the traditional aligned nations of Europe.
The negotiation which gave rise to the ceasefire has brought great relief to the frightened world how much more the tension-soaked Gulf states. It is hardly ever realised that in a war, it is not just deaths, displacement and destruction of properties that occur, there is pollution of water and air for the living; there is the contamination of the environment with substances that are injurious to health and that are breathed in or eaten without control every day, and ends with the technique of war with its dreadful biological, chemical and atomic weapons. We can imagine the consequences of blowing up Ghawar, just one Saudi oil field that boasts of 800 oil wellheads dispersed across 280 square kilometres. Think of when 50 missiles are launched simultaneously at 50 different targets!
When the tension built up high last month, the rest of the world was asked to conceive of Iran giving Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar to make a choice that was to define the Middle East for the next 50 years. It is the scenario I am recalling to refresh memories. It was the stark reality that was before them! It was not a negotiation; a diplomatic consultation was ruled out. It was an ultimatum to every Gulf monarchy simultaneously. The message was identical to all of them. Simple, binary and catastrophic regardless of which option they choose. Stop allowing American military forces to use your territory for strikes against Iran. Shut down the bases, deny overflight permissions, and the logistical support or accept that your oil infrastructure, the thing your entire economy is built on, the thing that keeps your population fed and your cities powered becomes a permanent military target that Iran will destroy systematically until nothing remains. Forty-eight hours to choose between economic suicide and strategic abandonment.
There is no middle ground, and the deadline is not negotiable. Iran made that clear: “We are not asking for your cooperation. We are informing you of the consequences of your choice. Choose America and your oil fields burn. Choose your oil fields and America leaves.” Either way the Gulf that existed a month ago, the one where monarchs balanced relations with both sides, where neutrality was possible, where wealth bought safety, that Gulf is gone and it is not coming back.
March 8, 2026, Iranian representatives delivered identical messages to Saudi’s Crown Prince, the UAE’s President, Kuwait’s Emir, and Qatar’s leadership, not through official diplomatic channels, but through intelligence back channels that Gulf states maintain with Iran specifically for communication that cannot be public.
The message was direct: “Your territory is being used to launch attacks that kill Iranian civilians. American aircraft take off from your bases. American drones operate from your fields. American missiles transit your airspace. American logistic networks run through your ports. Every one of those operations makes you a combatant. And combatants pay the price in war. You have 48 hours to end American use of your territory. After 48 hours, if America operations continue from your soil, we will begin systematically to destroy oil production infrastructure. Not your military bases. Your oil fields, your refineries, your pipelines, your storage facilities, everything you need to extract, process, and export the resources your economy depends on. We will destroy it methodically, completely and irreversibly, and there is nothing you can do to stop us.”
The Gulf monarchs received this message and immediately understood three things. First, Iran is not bluffing. The last two weeks proved Iran can hit any target in the Gulf with precision. Saudi oil facilities have already been struck. Kuwait refineries have already been hit. The capability has already been demonstrated. Second, American defences cannot protect the Gulf oil infrastructure. There are too many targets, too spread out, and too vulnerable. Third, the 48-hour deadline is real, Iran is not keen or starting negotiation. The decision point is here now. The delaying is itself a choice that Iran will interpret as choosing America.
What does each option mean as we are dealing with a non-diplomatic puzzle where clever negotiation finds a middle path? It is a binary trap where both doors lead to disaster.
Option One: Choose America. Tell Iran that the Gulf states will not bow to ultimatums, that American alliance commitments matter, and sovereignty means hosting whatever forces you choose. America bases stay. American operations continue. Iran follows through on its threat. Iranian missiles begin hitting Saudi oil fields. Aramco facilities that produce 10 million barrels per day start going offline. Not all at once. Systematically. One field per day, one refinery per week. A sustained campaign designed to reduce Saudi oil production from 10 million barrels per day to 5 million, then to 2 million, then zero over the course of three months.
What does that do to Saudi Arabia? Oil revenue is 87 per cent of Saudi government income. When oil production drops 50 per cent, Saudi Arabia cannot pay public sector salaries, cannot subsidize food and fuel for its population, and cannot fund the social programmes that keep 60 per cent unemployed youth from revolting. The country that bought stability with oil wealth loses oil wealth. Instability follows. This is not hypothetical. It is arithmetic. And the Saudi government knows it.
The UAE faces the same calculation. Oil and gas revenue is 30 per cent of GDP. More importantly, it is the foundation of everything else. The real estate market that foreign investors poured money into collapses when the country is a war zone. The tourism sector that Dubai built? Gone when airlines will not fly into a city under missile attack. The financial services industry relocates to Singapore when the bombs start falling. The UAE does not lose oil revenue, it loses everything oil revenue enabled Kuwait and Qatar: same story, different numbers, same outcome. Destroy oil infrastructure means economic collapse. An economic collapse in a rentier state means political collapse follows within months.
Option two: Choose the oil. Tell America that Gulf states can no longer host U.S. military forces. Bases close, overflights are denied, and American personnel are given 30 days to leave. Iran stops targeting oil infrastructure. The oil keeps flowing. The economy survives. And America leaves permanently. The alliance is over, not paused. It is over.
What does that mean strategically? It means the Gulf has no security guarantor. Iran becomes the regional hegemon by default, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE and Qatar, all of them become Iranian client states. Not through conquest. Through simple reality that they cannot defend themselves and the country that could defend them is gone. Iranian influence expands into every Gulf capital. Iranian preferences become Gulf policy. The monarchs that spent 70 years balancing against Iranian power just handed Iran everything it wanted without firing a shot.
And America? America loses the Middle East, not just a war, but the region. Sixty years of alliance infrastructure, strategic positioning, military access, all of it gone because Gulf states chose survival over alliance. The American military presence that has defined the region since 1945 ends, not because America was defeated militarily but because America’s allies concluded that American protection costs more that it provides.
Here is what makes the ultimatum strategically well calculated and brilliant. The 48-hour deadline does not give the Gulf states time to negotiate nor does it give America time to deploy additional defences. It does not give anyone time to find a diplomatic exit. Gulf monarchs have survived for decades by never fully committing to either side of regional rivalries. They maintain cordial relations with America and Iran. They buy weapons from the West and maintain dialogue with Tehran. They host American bases and send delegates to Tehran. The ultimatum forces a choice that could not be delayed or managed diplomatically; the 48 hours create a countdown that puts pressure on everyone simultaneously.
As the mechanisms of life work, Iran itself was served its own desert. It was given 48 hours to shape up or shape out. It was given 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, about the world’s most crucial transit port. And what was at stake? An intensified war with Iran and setting on fire of Saudi Arabia oil infrastructure.
In this article