By Uche J. Udenka

SIR: The Middle East is undergoing a dramatic shift in power structures, as key players such as Syria, Israel, Iran, and the Gulf states position themselves for future influence. Central to this transformation is Syria’s post-Assad future and Israel’s continued territorial expansion, both of which carry significant implications for regional stability.

As the Assad regime collapsed amid ongoing internal challenges, the region faces the potential for realignment, conflict, and new alliances, influenced by Israel’s ambitions and broader geopolitical maneuvres.

I will explore Syria’s prospects after Assad, the broader regional power dynamics, and Israel’s expansionist goals in light of ongoing airstrikes, occupation of the Israel-Syria buffer zone and other military operations.

Syria’s post-Assad scenario: A nation at crossroads: The Assad regime in Syria has endured through nearly a decade of brutal civil war, bolstered by external support from Russia and Iran. However, the regime faced multiple internal and external pressures. While Assad regained much of Syria’s territory, economic devastation, widespread poverty, and political stagnation continued to plague the country.

The currency plummeted, unemployment is high, and inflation reached critical levels, exacerbating the already dire situation for ordinary Syrians. This economic crisis, alongside the regime’s corruption and inability to rebuild the country, led to growing discontent among the population, even in areas that once supported Assad.

These protests, fuelled by economic hardship and government oppression, were often met with violence, yet they signal that the regime did not have the capacity to fully suppress popular dissent in the long run. With Assad’s exit, in the light of these internal issues, there is increasing speculation about the future of Syria. Various factions, both internal and external, would likely scramble for control: Russia and Iran invested heavily in supporting Assad and may seek to strengthen their foothold in Syria as the regime has fallen.

Global powers and their impact: The influence of global powers, particularly the United States, Russia, and China, continues to shape the Middle East’s future. The U.S. has been a key player in Syria, with its military presence in the northeast, but its focus on global competition with China and Russia may limit its engagement in the region as indicated by Trump the President- elect.

This shift has created a vacuum that Russia and China are eager to fill. Russia, with its longstanding alliance with Assad and its strategic military presence in Syria, seeks to maintain its influence, not only in Syria but also throughout the broader Middle East.

Meanwhile, China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its role in facilitating Saudi-Iran rapprochement show its growing diplomatic clout in the region. A region on the brink: Syria’s future after Assad and Israel’s territorial ambitions are central to the ongoing transformations in the Middle East. The outcomes in Syria, particularly the potential for fragmentation and the reshaping of alliances, will have far-reaching consequences for the region’s stability.

Meanwhile, Israel’s expansionist policies, alongside Iran’s influence and the evolving strategies of regional powers like Turkey and the Gulf states, ensure that the Middle East remains a complex and volatile geopolitical arena. Without a comprehensive and inclusive diplomatic framework, the region risks further fragmentation, violence, and instability, with the potential for new conflicts to emerge as old ones fester. Uche J. Udenka is a social and political analyst.

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