By Azeez Olorunlomeru and Paul Adunwoke • Why Odds Favour Bello With the seven-man All Progressives Congress (APC) Presidential Screening Committee, headed by former national chairman of the party, Chief John Oyegun, having concluded its screening and cleared 23 aspirants for primary election scheduled to begin tomorrow, political analysts and observers have narrowed the contest to five frontrunners.

The consensus of the voices threw up the following names in no specific order: Ekiti State governor, Kayode Fayemi; Vice President Yemi Osinbajo; Kogi state governor, Yahaya Bello; former governor of Lagos state, Bola Tinubu and Governor of Ebonyi State, Dave Umahi.

Kayode Fayemi After widespread engagements with the traditional rulers and political leaders to share and listen to their perspectives on the ideal approaches to building a united country based on justice, freedom, equity and the rule of law, Fayemi, who is the Chairman, Nigeria Governors’ Forum, decided to join the race. Fayemi was governor of Ekiti State between 2010 and 2014 and served as Minister of Mines and Steel Development between 2015 and 2018 during President Muhammadu Buhari’s first term before resigning to contest the governorship of Ekiti for a second term in 2018. He won the election and was inaugurated for a second term as governor on October 16, 2018.

Amongst his numerous academic and public policy engagements at home and abroad, he has lectured in Africa, Europe, the Americas and Asia. He has also served as an adviser on transitional justice, regional integration, constitutionalism, security sector reform and civil-military relations issues to various governments, inter-governmental institutions and development agencies.

He was the main technical adviser to Nigeria’s Human Rights Violations Investigation Commission (Oputa Panel), which investigated past abuses and also served on the Presidential Implementation Committees on Security Sector Reform, NEPAD and the Millennium Development Goals.

He was also technical expert to the Economic Community of West African States. (ECOWAS) on small arms and light weapons and United Nations Economic Commission of Africa on governance issues. He is also a member, Africa Policy Advisory Panel of the British Government.

Fayemi, who has written on governance and democratization, civil-military relations and security sector issues in Africa, believes he has what it takes to turnaround Nigeria’s fortunes. He also says that security of lives and property would be top-notch under his leadership.

Yemi Osinbajo Vice President Yemi Osinbajo has served with President Muhammadu Buhari for the past seven years and intends to succeed the president at the end of his tenure in 2023. He says improving the quality of education for young people and creating job opportunities are some of the reasons that made him join the 2023 Presidential race. “Our concern as a government has always been how to ensure that the common man is given a fair chance to be employed and to have a decent living which is why several of the projects that we have undertaken especially the Social Investment Programme, have been to better the lot of the people.

“But also, we have been concerned about young people; how we can improve not just the quality of the education of the young people, but the opportunities for young people to get jobs, to be employed. This may also explain why I am running for president of this country in 2023,” he said on his campaign train.

Osinbajo believes that he has acquired different leadership skills and garner experience while acting at various times as the president of the country.

As one analyst put it: “Nigeria deserves a very popular candidate. One that can go to the South South and the reception will be wild. A candidate that can visit the Northeast and the people will be chasing after his bus; a candidate that will go to the North Central and shake hands with the citizens; a candidate that will dress in the regalia of the South East and communicate with them and they will feel renewed hopes; a candidate that is the toast of the youths in the Southwest and of course a candidate that turns heads in the Northwest because of his intelligence, diligence and dedication. Sentiments aside, that candidate is Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, a loyal, dependable and reliable deputy to President Muhammadu Buhari.”

Yahaya Bello ONE of the frontline contenders seeking to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari is Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State. He started his efforts very early, almost two years ago, even when the agitation for power to go to the South was thick in the air and no northern contender dared to mull the idea. He championed the narrative that zoning was not in the ruling party’s constitution and was almost like a lone voice in that struggle. Even key governors from the North were vocal in their call for power to shift to the South based on what they termed a gentleman agreement.

However, not a few Nigerians from the South were indifferent to zoning, which gave his ambition a big boost.

When it dawned on northern stakeholders that a few weeks to the beginning of the real race, Bello was the only aspirant standing in the North, the race to puncture that began with some rushing to pay for the Presidential nomination forms even after allegedly buying Senate forms. This is a strength for the Kogi Governor.

Bello’s campaign has also taken the whole political and media space by surprise and his media outing has been adjudged the best in the current season. An independent manifesto review of key aspirants across parties by Channels TV also rated his manifesto the best amongst others.

So many youth groups have been clamouring for a youthful President and have teamed up behind the Kogi Governor who had been harnessing the key demographies for long. The huge simultaneous rallies by youths across more than 24 states on a single day showed a kind of capacity that had not been seen before in recent history.

He has massive women support also, on the back of the many strategic positions he has given to women in his cabinet and in his campaign organisation. These two demographies are key to winning elections and decision makers in the APC can’t ignore this. As at now, no other aspirant from the North has such support or structure.

Bola Tinubu BOLA Tinubu was elected Senator for the Lagos West constituency in Lagos State in 1993, and later as governor between 1999 – 2007. He is widely believed to be among Nigeria’s most successful politicians. He is currently the national leader of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

In the aftermath of the annulment of the June 12, 1993 Presidential election and the consequent fresh militarisation of politics, Tinubu became a founding member of the famous pro-democracy group, the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO), which, for several years, engaged the military for the soul of Nigeria.

Subsequently, he suffered many arrests and detention, harassments and constant threats to his life, forcing him to flee Nigeria for safety. He, however, did not give up the struggle as he joined NADECO abroad to continue the agitation for a restoration of democratic governance and rule in the country. In 1998, Tinubu returned to Nigeria to heed a call for all Nigerians to join in the National Reconciliation and Development. A year later, he began his two-term public service as an elected governor of Lagos State on the platform of the Alliance for Democracy (AD). For his excellent performance as governor, received several awards.

Tinubu, says he is in the race to bring hope and effect the changes the country desires. The former governor of Lagos State believes the country is in dire need of a leader who could unite the people, tackle insecurity and bring about the desired socio-economic development.

“We have struggled for democracy and today we have democracy but we are not stable yet. By now we should have a good farming system and opportunities to produce for other nations to buy. We chose democracy and we must not fail in this task. I’m in this race to renew the hope and make the future great for our children.

“For Nigeria to stand united and develop, we require patience and wisdom. We have to be united, that is the only way we can be great. That was why we formed APC based on principles. I want to tell you that Nigeria needs serious change,” he said during one of his campaign trips.

Dave Umahi DAVE Umahi is a man of many parts. In politics, he exhibits outstanding leadership qualities that make him a credible politician. From 2007 to 2009, he was appointed the Acting State Chairman of Peoples Democratic Party, Ebonyi State. Following his performance as Acting Chairman, he was elected the substantive state Chairman, of the Party in Ebonyi State during the 2009 State Congress; a position he held till 2011.

In the year 2011, Umahi was chosen by former governor Martin Elechi as his running mate in the governorship election of Ebonyi state. Subsequently, he was elected the Deputy Governor of Ebonyi State. That was the beginning of his journey into frontline leadership, as he later got elected as governor of the state.

Umahi believes he has the capacity to replicate at the national level, the successes in Ebonyi State. “I feel within me that the country is passing through a phase and I believe strongly that the miracles that God helped us to do in Ebonyi State by the reason of all the successes we made in all the economic indices and all our programmes, that if given the opportunity, we can replicate it at the national level.”

Beyond that, Umahi also believes that his closeness with President Buhari has given him a clear understanding of the President’s intentions and goodwill for the country and he intends to continue from where he stops come 2023.

“This is my conviction and that we can also build from where Mr President would stop. I know his heartbeat for the country and I know what he desires for this country. So, I think that I understand his programmes and his policies and his integrity,” he says, adding that he intends to bring a business-like spirit into governance.

Umahi, who doubles as Chairman of the South East Governors’ Forum, is also canvassing for a political solution to the insecurity problems in the region. He believes that if the self-acclaimed leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), Nnamdi Kanu, is willing and open to engagement, peace will return to the South East.