Three indices that will determine the winner of the Nigeria 2023 presidential election
Three indices that will determine the winner of the Nigeria 2023 presidential election

By David Ogungbemi

The youths and the older Nigerians on 25th February 2023 came out in mass to exercise their civic duty to cast vote in the much-anticipated 2023 general elections for the successor of the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari after his two terms of eight years which by effluxion of time will elapsed by May 29, 2023.

This is coming after months of campaigns by 18 candidates of different political parties as follows

Mr. Adewole Adebayo of the Social Democratic Party, SDP; Dumebi Kaachikwu of the African Democratic Congress, ADC; Kola Abiola of the Peoples Redemption Party, PRP; and Omoyele Sowore of the African Action Congress, AAC.

Felix Osakwe, National Rescue Movement NRM; Prof Peter Umeadi, All Progressive Grand Alliance, APGA; Dan Nwanyanwu, Zenith Labour Party, ZLP; Oluwafemi Adenuga, Boot Party, BP; Christopher Imumolen, Accord.

Hamza Al-Mustapha, Action Alliance, AA; Sani Yabagi Yusuf, African Democratic Party, ADP; Malik Ibrahim Ado, Young Progressive Party, YPP; and Osita Nnadi, Action People’s Party, APP, are also in the race.

The only female candidate in the contest is Chichi Ojei of the Allied Peoples Movement, APM.

However, the famous and prominent contenders and an eventual winner is believed to be among the candidates are Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC; Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP; Peter Obi of the Labour Party, LP; and Rabiu Kwakwanso of the New Nigeria People’s Party, NNPP.

Close to 93,468,008 registered voters were eligible to vote during the elections, it was 87,209,007 people that collected their Permanent Voter’s Cards, PVCs, leaving 6,259,229 PVCs uncollected with more than 176,000 polling units.

The Saturday’s elections, which include Nigeria’s two houses of parliament, the House of Representatives and Senate, were marred by violence in many parts of the country.

Meanwhile, results have been trickling in since yesterday (Saturday) and the leading candidates are Tinubu, Atiku and Obi.

The situation led to the loss of lives and disruption of the voting process in many areas.

There were violence, disruptions of voting exercise and disenfranchisement at some polling units in parts of the country such as Lagos, Kano, Kogi, Edo, Borno and Bayelsa states.

The Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof Mahmood Yakubu, has declared Collation Centre opened for collation of results on Sunday.

Following the elections, there had been several unverified election results online with several party supporters claiming that their candidates are leading others in Saturday’s presidential poll.

This forced the suspension of elections in 141 polling units in Bayelsa. The electoral body has started the processes of collation and announcement of election results. Notwithstanding the hitches, which have resulted in major political parties engaging in a war or battle of allegations and counter-allegations on elections results being circulated on the cyberspace, INEC said it would continue with the procedures of announcing elections, and one of Tinubu, Atiku or Obi will emerge winner soonest.

Below are the three indices that the presidential candidate that wants to succeed the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari must fulfil based on the 1999 constitutional provisions which will determine the winner of the poll

1. The candidate that scores the majority popular votes.

2. The candidate with at least 25 per cent of the votes cast in two-thirds (24 out of 36) of the states.

3. If no candidate meets the constitutional provisions, a run-off will be conducted within 21 days, in which a winner must emerge.

4. However, only two candidates – the one with the highest number of votes and the candidate with 25 percent votes in more states – will take part in the run-off election.

The Electoral Act (2022) reveals that the winner of the presidential election will be subjected to the provisions of section 134 of the Nigerian Constitution.

It states that, “In an election to the office of the President or Governor whether or not contested and in any contested election to any other elective office, the result shall be ascertained by counting the votes cast for each candidate and subjected to the provisions of sections 133, 134 and 179 of the Constitution.”

Also, Section 134, subsection 2, of the 1999 Constitution states, “A candidate for an election to the office of President shall be deemed to have been duly elected where, there being more than two candidates for the election – he has the highest number of votes cast at the election each of at least two-thirds of all the States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.”

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